Comments to George Colony on “My View: The Google Future”
I love the thesis of your argument and find myself about 75% in agreement with what you say about Google’s significance to the IT industry. That said, let me outline what the remaining 25% consists of and get your thoughts on it:
1. You say Web pages will get replaced by programs. I think it is more accurate to put the idea the other way around: Programs will get replaced by Web pages. Technically, this is the same point, but stated this way shows why Google is such a threat to Microsoft.
2. You think Google will be significant in large corporations. I do not. The reason is that the monetization model that fuels its competitive advantage is inconsistent with use inside a corporation. Corporations prefer a software licensing model to protect their privacy and secure their relationship to the vendor. Google offers will either be well-behaved programs or be gelded at the firewall.
3. You think Google’s stock price may not be insane. Of course it’s insane, but only because public markets have never found a way to properly discount the risk of disruptive innovations.
4. Finally, you think Microsoft needs to reinvent itself to respond effectively to Google’s threat. I don’t. I actually agree with Bill on this—it is 1995 all over again, only with a much tougher competitor. Then it was, now it is Google, and there is nothing that better ignites the Microsoft competitive response engine than getting mooned. Bill (and Steve, and Ray) just have to properly fan the flames, harness the outrage, and let the games begin!